etot Energy Consumption per Capita.

Global Energy Consumption will be determined by two factors:

  1. The number of people that live on earth.
  2. The Energy Consumption per Capita.

If we look into the future, in this case, until the year 2050, we must determine the percentile of annual growth of the population plus the percentile annual growth of the Energy Consumption per Capita.

We toyed with the idea of finding a pattern as to how GNP per capita influences Energy Consumption per capita (see table on separate page). As you will note, the GNP figures hardly show any understandable correlation with population growth or energy consumption (per capita or the total of a region). Therefore, we will use the United Nations data base, which divides the world into two groups: The Developed World and the Developing World (how they define this distinction please read: their technical notes).

Therefore, we will use the United Nations data base, which divides the world into two groups: The Developed World and the Developing World (how they define this distinction please read:their technical notes).

Trivia: In comparison with the rest of humanity's history, the last 15 years of wars, economic upheavals, social and religious induced conflicts and the destroying of our only habitat, mother earth, at an ever increasing rate, seems like "business as usual" for the human race. It is becoming clearer each day that the Collective Intelligence of Dinosaurs with regard to the Survival of The Species was infinitely higher than the Collective Intelligence of Humanity with regard to the Survival of the Species (Have a look at our time-line). The saying by French philosopher Descartes, "Je soit parce que je pense!" ("I think therefore I am"), will soon be changed to "Je mort parce que je pense!" (I think therefore I die").

This is defined as follows:

  1. Number of people living in the developed world: 1,313,697 with an average annual growth rate over the last 15 years of 0.3 %.
  2. Number of people living in the developing world: 5,170,215 with an average annual growth rate over the last 15 years of 1.9 %.
  3. Energy Consumption per Capita in the developed world in 2005 was 976 with an average rate of increase annually over the last 15 years of -0.1 %.
  4. Energy Consumption per capita in the developing world in 2005 was 4,720 with an average rate of increase annually over the last 15 years of 2.8 %.

Also, it is reasonable to assume that:

  1. The Energy Consumption per Capita in the Developed World will continue to decline. This should continue with an even stronger trend than today, taking into account the global economic crisis, (please check out this very clear and concise explanation of the actual Global Economic Crisis and Global Credit Crunch: A guide to the Credit Crunch on the BBC Worldservice) and the ever greater awareness of our finite, un-renewable energy resources and the environmental destruction that is going on.
  2. The Energy Consumption per Capita in the Developing World will continue to increase. The Developing World is going through a "catch-up" process with regard to the Developed World but that increase will be negatively influenced by implementing new technologies in new infrastructures.

With all this in mind we will show TWO scenarios, against which we can evaluate our actions in regard to humanity's behavior and his energy consumption and needs,(ALL BASED ON THE POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF THE UNITED NATIONS FOR THE NEXT 42 YEARS):

Energy per capita increase for developed and developing world stays the same as the last 15 years.
The table below shows us the etot in GJ for Scenario 1 per year:
etot in GJ 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
etotdeveloped 198 197 196 195 194 193 192 191 190 189
etotdeveloping 41 47 54 62 71 81 94 107 123 142
etotGlobal 73 77 81 86 93 100 110 121 134 149

Energy per capita increase for developed and developing world stays the same as the last 15 years.

The table below shows us the etot in GJ for Scenario 2 per year:
etot in GJ 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
etotdeveloped 198 195 192 189 186 183 181 178 175 173
etotdeveloping 41 45 50 55 61 67 74 82 90 100
etotGlobal 73 75 77 79 83 87 92 97 103 111

On the next page we will calculate the Energy Comsumption of the Developed and Developing and World Global Energy Consumption or the Petot from the Main Formula for the 2 Scenarios

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