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Do we have a
GLOBAL ENERGY CRISIS

OR

GLOBAL ENERGY OPPORTUNITY ?

Graph 1. World Population Growth through History.
Source: http://www.susps.org/overview/numbers.html

Our prime energy resource since the beginning of time was food, (the human body needs between 2.000 and 4.000 KCal per day just to stay alive, the exact figures not being important at this stage of the argument). Eons ago, humanity began their history on this planet as hunters and gatherers. They spent the biggest part of waking hours running around the country side to find prey or plant food (wild berries, roots, grains etc). The most proficient groups (those that had enough food, in other words, energy at their disposal) had time to spare to do other things, like socializing (communicating with group members), or enjoying a moment of peace or thinking how they could gather or hunt in a more efficient way to accumulate food (ENERGY) with less effort. This resulted in tool making.

During the Stone Age, the invention of stone tools meant that the energy the human body could generate was applied in a more efficient way, i.e., more efficient hunting and gathering of food. Also, living in caves meant that the human being was better protected from the hostile environment, (warmer in the winter, cooler in the summer, etc.) therefore, more energy-efficient.

Tools are nothing more than contraptions to apply the energy of the human body or mind in a more efficient way to alter human's environment in such way that he feels safer, more secure and more comfortable. With the invention of tools humanity needed to spend less and less time to provide for himself and with this surplus of time , humanity was able think even more of how to improve his environment to his own benefit. This resulted in the following energy sources humanity started harnessing during thousands of years:

• The domestication of farm animals, which are nothing else then an indirect ENERGY source through food.
• Farming, again nothing else than an indirect ENERGY source through food.
• Domesticating the horse, buffalo or camel to do work or supply the ENERGY to travel, so trade and interchange of knowledge started to flourish in many different areas on the globe.
• Harnessing the wind through windmills to pump water or mill grain and to propel ships so international trade and knowledge exchange started to flourish even more globally.
• The use of oil and all kinds of fats to produce light so humanity had more time to do useful things, even during the hours of darkness.
• Slaves can been seen as an ENERGY source
• Cheap labor can also be seen as a cheap ENERGY source.

During the last 5000 years humanity started to harness and organize their energy resources in an ever increasingly efficient way. The result was that locally, all kinds of human civilizations appeared bringing with them population surges scattered all over the globe (think about China, India, Mesopotamia, Egyptians, Mayas Incas Greek, Roman, etc.)

It was the Scottish Presbyterian author Thomas Young in the year 1807 who first used the term "energy" in the modern sense. For the first time in history, human beings started to think about energy in a conscious way.

The moment the concept of ENERGY entered into the human mind, humanity changed forever. All of a sudden, scientists and inventors started to think of how to apply ENERGY to humankind's needs. With the result of the Industrial Revolution (and an explosion of population growth all over the globe) ENERGY is applied in abundance with our burning of finite fossil fuel reserves at an exponential rate (see graph). The spike in growth of the global population since 1800 AD and onward is caused by the abundant availability of cheap energy, i.e. fossil fuels. Humanity finally recognized the concept of energy and what energy could mean for humanity's "development".

The data for the graph below were obtained through WikipediA from their page World_Population.

The first thing noticeable in the above graph is that the 155 years can be divided in roughly three periods of 50 years.

1. The last 50 years of the 19th. Century show a steady population growth of about 8 million people per year.
2. The first half of the 20th century shows a steady but remarkable increase, of about 17 million people per year. (This is despite of the two World Wars, which were responsible for about 75 million deaths, and the Great Depression! For a better understanding of what little effect this devastating period of human history had on the Global Population Growth, visit: Source List and Detailed Death Tolls for the Twentieth Century Hemoclysm. Interesting in light of the current Global Recession.)
3. During the second half of the twentieth century, when humanity didn't have to direct their energy resources on global warfare, the yearly Global Population Growth sky-rocketed to an incredible 65 million yearly increase and even to a 128 million yearly increase at the turn of the century, (see table below).

Period & Year	Global Population	Period in # of Years	Population Increase in Period	Population Increase per Year
1850	1,262
1850-1900	1,650	50	388	8
1900-1950	2,519	50	869	17
1950-2000	6,071	50	3,552	65
2000-2005	6,454	5	383	128
2005-July 1st 08	6,707	2,5	253	101

Trivia: We give every new born a 75W "old fashioned" light bulb. We use that bulb 4 hours a day every day of the year. The energy needed of the 128.000.000 light bulbs for the new born will be 128.000.000 x 4 (hours) x 365 (days) x 75 (W) = 14,016,000,000 kWh = 8,6 Mboe . The average Electrical Power Plant runs with a 40 % efficiency. That means humanity has to burn 2,4 x 8,6 = 20,6 Million barrels of Oil for the light bulbs for the newly born babies. Switching from a the "old fashioned" light bulbs of 75 W to the Saving Bulbs of 11 W, who give the same amount of light will require 20,6 X 11 / 75 = 3,0 Million barrels of Oil. Just switching to modern light bulbs for the new-born will save humanity 17.6 Million of barrels of oil.
Burning 1 barrel of oil produces 0,43 metric ton of CO₂. Switching to the modern light bulbs for the newborn will result in 0,43 x 17,6 Million = 7,6 Million tons of CO₂ NOT send into to the atmosphere. (Don't believe it? Visit: Green Power Partnership)

During the years 2000 to 2005 the Global Population increased with an average of 128 million people per year. During that period the population of a country like Japan was added to the Global Population every year.

During the 2,5 years from 2005 till July 1st. 2008 the Global Population increased with an average of 101 million people per year. Mexico had 106,7 million people on July st. 2008.

Please note: We only mention Japan and Mexico here, because their populations coincided with the annual Global Population Growth for the periods 2000 to 2005 and 2006 to 2009 successively. The real impact on Global Energy Consumption from the annual Global Population Growth is a far more complicated problem, which we will be addressed in the chapter: Global Energy Consumption and its Trends.

The present Global Population Growth information leads to the conclusion that the global population in 40 years will be over 9 billion, a staggering amount, (see graph below). Just imagine what this means for the Energy Consumption increase. The good news is that it appears that the Global Population increase is slowing down.

Please note: The data for the blue part of the graph below were obtained from WikipediA from their page World_Population. and for the red part of the graph from www.earthtrends.wri.org of the World Resource Institute of the United Nations from their page Total Population, Both Sexes.

Total population, both sexes refers to de facto population in the country, area or region as of July 1 of the year indicated. The projections reported here assume medium fertility (the "medium-fertility assumption" of the United Nations Population Division). For more tecnical information regarding the statistics used, please visit: Technical And Source Notes of the World Resource Institute.

From the year 1850 AD till 2050 AD

Please note: As we are going to use the World Resource Institute of the United Nations extensively as our data base for population growth and many other important statistics related to energy and energy use per capita, we suggest our readers to visit that site and register to it. The registration is free and gives access to far more data than to not-registered visitors.

As we can see in the table below, the Global Population will increase by a staggering 2,738,000,000 people during the next 45 years. This represents 45 % more than the Global Population of 2005.

The good news is, that it appears that the Global Population Growth is going to slow down. But the fact remains that during the year 2050 2.7 billion more people will need food and energy.

P in Millions of People
	2005	2010	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2040	2045	2050
P	6,454	6,907	7,295	7,667	8,011	8,318	8,587	8,824	9,026	9,191
P increase in % related to 2005
P (%)		7,0	13,0	18,8	24,1	28,9	33,0	36,7	39,9	42,4

P in Billions of People
	2005	2010	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2040	2045	2050
PGlobal	6,5	6,9	7,3	7,7	8,0	8,3	8,6	8,8	9,0	9,2
PDeveloped world	1,34	1.37	1.38	1.40	1.41	1.41	1.41	1.41	1.41	1.40
PDeveloping world	5.17	5.54	5.91	6.27	6.60	6.90	7.17	7.41	7.61	7.79

The reason for the distiction between the Populations of the Developed and Developing World will be explained on the page of Pe_cap Energy Consumption per Capita.

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